And The Oscar Goes To...

It's mid-December. Let's power-rank the contenders.

If you’re reading this today, and it’s today no matter what day you’re reading this, we’re less than 80 days away from the Oscars. Now, a lot can happen in that time—a Civil War, nuclear destruction or even another win for the New York Jets—but as long as none of those improbable things happen, the Oscars will be held on March 2nd, 2025.

For those following closely (and you probably shouldn’t because why would you?), this is the most confusing Best Picture lineup we’ve had in quite some time. Partially due to the strikes that slowed down production, lingering effects from the COVID pandemic and the movie business being a topsy-turvy place, there’s no real frontrunner like in years past.

I guess Anora would be the closest thing to a lead. Still, a dramedy centered on a sex worker marrying a Russian oligarch’s son from the director of Tangerine and The Florida Project is quite a reach for an Academy that loves to reward middle-of-the-road populist fare. We’re just two years away from CODA (which is fine?) sweeping everything it was nominated for. And unlike last year’s behemoth Oppenheimer, Baker doesn’t have the “important filmmaker” title that Christopher Nolan does. It truly is anyone’s game this year.

Ever since the 94th Academy Awards in 2022, there have been (and have to be) 10 Best Picture nominees. I would wager there are five locks this year and then a smorgasbord of chaos. Let’s go through the top ten because that's what you’re reading me for (well, I hope that’s why; not really sure why else you would be here).

Just Missed Out

September 5, The Substance, All We Imagine as Light, Gladiator II, Blitz, The Wild Robot, Challengers

Apologies to all the movies listed below which all have middling to pretty good chances to sneak into Best Picture, but at the moment I don’t see it. If I had to pick one, it would be All We Imagine as Light, which got snubbed as India’s Oscar pick, had a strong showing at the Golden Globes (including Best Director) and has been popping up at Critics Circles. September 5 has been a rallying cry for insider Scott Feinberg for … let’s just say dubious political reasons. And that’s kept it in the race, but it’s pretty damn quiet otherwise. The Substance is going to be high on a lot of voters’ ballots, but I could just as easily see it missing out completely on those bewildered by the brutal body horror. Anyway, we’ll see. Who the hell knows?

10. A Complete Unknown

Very few have seen this one yet, but Timothée Chalamet is a lock at this point for a Best Actor nom and there’s always a biopic of some sort rounding out the top ten. Director James Mangold has been nominated twice and there’s always a late-breaking movie getting in there. This feels like it has more than enough momentum, especially with a Christmas release date, to get in there.

9. A Real Pain

If things stay steady, Kieran Culkin will have an Oscar in a few months to pair with his Succession Emmy. I’m kinda rooting for a shakeup here, but Culkin has been winning left and right and this is a great movie, to be fair. Director Jesse Eisenberg has been on the campaign trail and this movie balances the comedy and drama deftly enough to work with voters of all sorts.

8. Nickel Boys

This is a real question mark because the Academy has been (let’s just say) suspicious when it comes to Black stories, especially from Black filmmakers. I’ll be seeing this one soon, but from what I’ve read, it’s visually inventive and almost “radical” when it comes to its first-person filmmaking. Will report back, of course. It’s beloved enough by those who get it that I see it getting in there.

7. Sing Sing

There’s a world where this wins Best Picture. It has that “we’re all a family” vibe for the cast that worked wonders for CODA and Parasite and its love at The Gothams has me feeling like it’s a dark horse. I really enjoyed this movie about incarcerated men joining a theater troupe and it seems like everyone else who sees it is at the very least pro.

6. Dune: Part Two

This one kinda got screwed over by its early-2024 release date and that there’s been a third movie announced. The Academy always likes to reward the final part of the trilogy, but it’s frankly insane that the following two movies have better chances to win. Honestly, there’s a near-zero chance Dune wins Best Picture this year, but I’d still be pretty shocked if it’s not nominated.

5. Emilia Pérez

This is truly abysmal stuff. I honestly can’t remember the last time I watched a movie that tried to bite off this much more than it could chew. A crime thriller mixed with a romantic drama, which just so happens to be a musical, is fun in theory until you sit down and watch such an unbearable slog. I like Selena Gomez for the most part, but she’s pretty embarrassing here as the put-upon wife and the operatic nature of the story is just a mess. So, of course, it’ll be in the Best Picture race and has a decent chance of winning a few awards.

4. Wicked

I can’t say this was my favorite movie (not even my favorite movie I watched on that particular day), but I’d be shooting myself in the foot if I didn’t put it near the top of the race. Everyone (and their mother … multiple times) has seen it, Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo both have legitimate chances to win their categories and everything is so silly now.

3. Conclave

Although in the third spot, I still kinda see this winning Best Picture with the Anora hesitations I pointed out before and the fact that the No. 2 is a 3-hour-and-35-minute historical drama on a Holocaust surviving architect centering on brutalist architecture. This movie has Ralph Fiennes who will most likely be nominated, Stanley Tucci and Isabella Rossellini who are both in their respective races and a bunch of popes being catty to each other. Not a movie I loved but one that I can see garnering a popular vote just like [REDACTED FOR SPOILERS].

Why Conclave Will (Unfortunately) Win Best Picture

2. The Brutalist

Adrien Brody may be about to win his second Best Actor trophy and yet, I’m pretty hesitant about this movie having enough to win the whole damn thing. We’ll find out a bit more when it’s officially released (over its rollout starting next week and pushing into January) and if it gets a second wind from those seeing it for the first time. I would wager that it’s too thorny and overwhelming to win and yet Oppenheimer won last year, another historical drama from an auteur. Maybe the revised Academy has enough chutzpah to do it.

1. Anora

Even with my earlier reluctance, I fucking loved Anora and it seems like everyone else I know who saw it feels similarly. Mikey Madison is a star and frontrunner and this movie is both timely and timeless alluding to the best slapstick comedies with a 21st-century twist. I’d have no problem with this winning Best Picture, which is exactly what makes me so worried. Anyway, congrats to Deadpool & Wolverine on somehow winning the whole thing and rendering this entire piece moot.