Why Conclave Will (Unfortunately) Win Best Picture

I'm calling my shot now. But, this can all change tomorrow.

Before we get into this, I need you to know that I’m often wrong. I thought Roma would win Best Picture over Green Book. I thought Brandon Knight would be a multi-time NBA All-Star. I even thought journalism would be a good thing to major in and then I doubled down and went to grad school for it.

And yet, with all that said, I have a feeling about this upcoming Oscar Season: Conclave is going to win Best Picture.

With a simple premise (dead pope, dramatic election), strong performances from Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and Isabella Rossellini and a VERY timely election-esque plot between good and evil, Conclave has everything to make it a frontrunner for Best Picture. The one problem is that it’s not very good.

To be fair, that hasn’t mattered that much. Green Book, for example. Or what about The King’s Speech, American Beauty, Forrest Gump, Dances with Wolves, Driving Miss Daisy and many many others? Conclave like many of those just listed is a shlocky, style-over-substance eye-roller with a few it’s time actors and a beloved director for some weird reason.

The thing is that I wanted it to be good, but Conclave is so obsessed with being a treatise on our current situation that it feels exhausting. When the movie finally opens up into what it’s really trying to say, the entire thing grinds to a confusing, out-of-nowhere halt. It’s an airport thriller that’s meant to keep you reading without any real oomph behind it or any real thoughts. Edward Berger directs the hell out of it, but to what end? At a certain point, it’s a bunch of cool shots with little thematic string or reason to exist. The first half is pretty entertaining, but a certain point, I just didn’t care about any of the characters and just wanted to get to the end.

In most years, this would come and go with some decent reviews and a bunch of packed houses full of elderly people, but at this point, it’ll definitely be in the Oscars race and will be contending for most of the big prizes. Here’s why:

1. It’s a wonky year

Usually, by this time, one real front-runner from a big-time director takes the award-season lead such as Oppenheimer last year, Nomadland a few years back or other recent victors like The Shape of Water, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) and Slumdog Millionaire. Yes, there are more shocking results like Parasite or Everything Everywhere All at Once, but the only big movies we haven’t seen yet are Wicked, Gladiator 2 and Nosferatu. Those might all do well, but most likely aren’t real contenders. Nickel Boys is still coming, same with Blitz, A Complete Unknown and September 5, but those all feel a bit too random and not well-known enough to really strike.

The other favorites this season—partially due to the strike, COVID residue and random timing—are from lesser-known directors focusing on smaller, more personal stories like Anora from Sean Baker, The Brutalist from Brady Corbet and Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard. I’ve yet to see the third one there, but all three are genre-breaking, sexually peculiar independent-adjacent films that could alienate voters.

Anora is technically the favorite, according to GoldDerby, but it seems a bit crazy for a movie centering on a sex worker marrying the son of a Russian oligarch to resonate with such a wide variety of people, especially with a more prude voting body, which is what you need to do to win an Oscar. Anora rules, of course, but it doesn’t make you feel good at the end. Which brings us to the next point…

2. Conclave is a crowd-pleaser

Do you know who wants to see Conclave? Seemingly everyone. People who don’t go to the theaters are checking it out, the elderly are in their bag with a pope mystery and the memes comparing this to Mean Girls and other gossipy movies are keeping it in the public consciousness.

The actors are well-known and reach a variety of fanbases and the mystery-thriller is as hot a genre as there can be right now. Even my parents went to see this one on the big screen.

No real spoilers, but this movie makes a big, optimistic point at the end and people leave it feeling relatively good, despite all of the disorder. That certainly can’t be said about most of the other contenders. It’s got that CODA “that was nice” feeling and is fun to talk about and think about how you would fare in a similar situation. The only real blockbuster firmly in the race is Dune: Part 2, which has a much more up-in-the-air ending, came out too long ago to stay in the race and the Academy often rewards the final movie in various series—there’s a third Dune movie arriving in the coming years.

3. It’s time

A lot of awards-season politics centers on good vibes. How else could Jessica Chastain have won for the ridiculous The Eyes of Tammy Faye? Conclave has a director beloved by the Academy, as evidenced by Berger’s run with the middling All Quiet on the Western Front, Ralph Fiennes who has somehow never won (he’s only been nominated twice, neither for Grand Budapest Hotel) and Stanley Tucci. Who doesn’t love Stanley Tucci? He’s Stanley Goddamn Tucci.

The production company, Focus Features, might have never won a Best Picture Oscar, but it’s always in the hunt and has put out award winners like The Holdovers, Belfast, BlacKkKlansman, Promising Young Woman and Brokeback Mountain. They even have five Best Actors in Adrien Brody (The Pianist, 2002), Sean Penn (Milk, 2008), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club, 2013), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything, 2014) and Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour, 2017). They have a strong team at pushing these mid-budget, high-interest relevant dramas, and if you can get Redmayne an Oscar, you can do anything you set your mind to.

In conclusion: I hope I’m wrong, but I think Conclave is taking Best Picture. There’s plenty of time for something crazy to happen. Just look at *waves hand* everything in the world, but Ralph Fiennes and co. might be just messy enough to win the whole damn thing.