Well, Here We Go

Oscars, Oscars, Oscars.

It’s so weird. The awards season is way too long—if I had my druthers, the Oscars would be in January—and yet, the actual show always sneaks up on me. I was planning out my weekend, as one does, and completely forgot that the Academy Awards are this Sunday.

I’ve ordered a red carpet, printed out my Letterboxd-approved Oscar ballots and now it’s time for me to write way too many words on who’s going to win (and who should win) every single goddamn category.

The Oscars are the best … and also infuriating. The takes are unbelievable … and also ridiculous. Everyone’s talking about the movies. I love it. Just pure chaos coming this Sunday. Also, probably a lot of awards for Oppenheimer.

BEST PICTURE

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

This has been essentially guaranteed since its release, but it’s been locked up over the past few months. Oppenheimer has won nearly every award it’s been nominated for; it’s not just a critical darling but also a money-maker. The only movie I can see sneaking in for a win is surprisingly The Zone of Interest. There’s been a huge push for such a resonant and evocative movie to nab the Oscar, but ultimately I don’t think it’ll be enough. It’s too avant-garde for the voters’ taste. I can see quite a few not even finishing the movie. In other words, the Christopher Nolan Oscars season is finally here. Speaking of…

BEST DIRECTOR

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

This was my favorite movie of 2023, so I’m certainly not complaining. Christopher Nolan turned a historical adaptation into a suspenseful and adrenaline-pumping three-hour epic. I saw it again not too long ago in IMAX and goddamn, what a picture! I know this isn’t breaking news or anything but it’s a good movie. Nolan has been making expensive, thoughtful and bizarre blockbusters for decades now. Give the man a statue.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Nyad
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

This is the closest of the above-the-line races as Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone have been winning every award in sight. It’s basically a coin flip at this point with oddsmakers slightly favoring Stone. I’m leaning toward Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon, which may have less screen time but is equally critical to its respective movie. It’s not just how powerful of a performance Gladstone gives, but she was the first Native American to be nominated in this category and would be the first to win Best Actress. The Oscars love to make history and Stone has already won this very category. No disrespect to Stone, of course, who fucking rules. If she wins, my official take would be: Hell yeah. I still think my Best Actress vote would go to Natalie Portman in May December who didn’t even make the Final Five. One day, I’ll be able to vote on the Academy Awards. One day…

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

The Oppenheimer train continues. This felt like Paul Giamatti’s award at one point, which would be cool as hell if it happens, but it feels like Cillian Murphy has gained steam over the last month or so. He’s the critical lead of the Oscars stalwart and has been a beloved actor for decades now. This is most likely his crowning achievement.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Sorry, that I keep on agreeing with what I think Will Win, but the Academy may actually be pretty good this year. This is, of course, a foolish thing to think and I’ll soon be Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, but for now, let me be optimistic. It’s going to be pretty funny when Green Book somehow wins yet again. Anyway, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is probably the lock of all locks. She hasn’t lost a single precursor yet. It’s like watching the prime Michael Jordan Bulls. She’s also great in The Holdovers, so good job, everyone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
SHOULD WIN: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Mark Ruffalo gave one of the best performances of 2023 in Poor Things. There’s a good chance it’s my favorite. He’s chewing the scenery throughout and plays such a cad in the most ridiculous of ways. He’s also slightly menacing until he very much isn’t. This feels like Robert Downey Jr.’s award, which is also fine with me. He gives a great performance in one of the best movies of the year, but this also feels like a “Welcome back to the real world” celebration of one of the best actors we have right now after being stuck in the Marvel Machine for most of the 21st century. A real performance in a real movie? Here’s an Oscar.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December
SHOULD WIN: Celine Song, Past Lives

This is a pretty loaded category, and yes, I like Maestro. It seems like the murder-mystery, twisted court case in Anatomy of a Fall will take this one home. But, honestly, I’d be pretty happy with any of these. I ultimately had to choose between May December and Past Lives, but I’m going to give it to the screenplay that shattered me. I’d also love to throw in Asteroid City and Amanda here, two of my other favorite movies from 2023 with marvelous screenplays to boot. Anyway, it’s very cool that Justine Triet looks poised for an Oscar. No question she deserves it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

I gotta be honest: I don’t get the American Fiction thing. It’s fine, I guess, but ultimately felt like a half-baked satire mixed with This Is Us. It just didn’t work for me and felt empty at its core. It seems like it’s going to win, which … okay, sure. I would honestly prefer any of the other four here. Gerwig, McNamara, Nolan and Glazer are all doing tremendous acts of adaptation, taking a source and twisting it into their own type of art. Nolan would probably be my choice as he was able to dream up a breakneck action movie from the 721-page American Prometheus.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Io Capitano, Italy
Perfect Days, Japan
Society of the Snow, Spain
The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom

My real Should Win didn’t make this list and it’s France’s The Taste of Things, a beautiful romance with some of the best-looking food in cinema history. Well, actually, if we’re being honest my Should Win would be Italy’s Amanda, but that never had a chance in hell to even be nominated. I have to be truthful here: I’ve only seen two of these. The Zone of Interest is very good. Society of the Snow is ehhh. I need to see Perfect Days. I’m sorry I let you down, but I also have a full-time job and volleyball every Tuesday.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This is tough because I’m kinda rooting for The Boy and the Heron despite liking Spider-Verse a bit more. I had some trouble sinking my teeth into the Hayao Miyazaki final-but-also-not-final film, especially compared to the gorgeous and groundbreaking design of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s a me problem more than anything. I’m honestly fine with either winning. It would just be cool to see Miyazaki win another Oscar.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol

20 Days in Mariupol is going to win this one. Not only is it a critical text, but it’s timely. Something the Best Documentary Feature voters love to reward. Don’t have much else to say here. I’m never great at catching up on this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Edward Lachman, El Conde
Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Matthew Libatique, Maestro
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Robbie Ryan, Poor Things

I almost threw in Killers of the Flower Moon as my Should Win, but that would be a lie and I can’t do that to you, the loyal reader. Give it to Hoyte van Hoytema who somehow made this ridiculously challenging and stunning movie, especially when considering how difficult IMAX cameras make everything.

BEST EDITING

Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things

I mean, come on. This movie is cut in such a way that it makes me wish Jennifer Lame would edit my own life. I’ll tell you one thing: It would look a hell of a lot better.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Napoleon
Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer
SHOULD WIN: Holly Waddington, Poor Things

I barely know how to dress myself, so I don’t know if I should be voting on Best Costume Design. However, I’m a man, so I’m going to make a choice despite not having any knowledge of the subject. Poor Things is my winner because the outfits rule. It’s that simple. Barbie is also great. Good job, everyone.

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue; Golda
WILL WIN: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell; Maestro
Luisa Abel, Oppenheimer
SHOULD WIN: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston; Poor Things
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé; Society of the Snow

It’s going to be very funny when Bradley Cooper’s Maestro nose wins an Oscar, but that’s what the Academy Awards do best. I was in the Sephora near Union Square recently watching some friends buy stuff, so I think I know what I’m saying here. It’s a win for Poor Things for me.

BEST SOUND

Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; The Creator 
Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; Maestro 
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell; Oppenheimer
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn; The Zone of Interest

This scene alone deserves the Oscar for Oppenheimer. Excited for Dune: Part Two to win an Oscar a year from now in this category. Calling my shot 12 months in advance.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould; The Creator 
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima; Godzilla Minus One 
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould; Napoleon

Godzilla Minus One looks better than most American blockbusters in recent years. It was made for $10-15 million. Give it an Oscar for that fact alone. This looks so much more realistic and terrifying than the recent U.S. Godzilla films. There’s a certain level of gravitas to the way Minus One goes about it with a Jaws-esque capturing of the monster.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: Sarah Greenwood, production design; Katie Spencer, set decoration; Barbie
SHOULD WIN: Jack Fisk, production design; Adam Willis, set decoration; Killers of the Flower Moon 
Arthur Max, production design; Elli Griff, set decoration; Napoleon
Ruth De Jong, production design; Claire Kaufman, set decoration; Oppenheimer 
James Price and Shona Heath, production design; Zsuzsa Mihalek, set decoration; Poor Things 

It’s between Flower Moon and Barbie for me, which are perhaps opposites in terms of production design. Just remarkable stuff for the respective films. I’m leaning Flower Moon because of the world it re-creates, but who knows? Happy for whoever wins this one.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie
SHOULD WIN: “I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie
“The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot
“It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson, American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Scott George, Killers of the Flower Moon

I have had “I’m Just Ken” stuck in my head for over 48 hours now, so I have to give it the win. The Billie Eilish song is fine and works well in the movie but I don’t understand why it should beat the wholly original Ryan Gosling number. One of the best moments in movies in 2023.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Laura Karpman, American Fiction
John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Sometimes I’ll listen to this and feel like I can fly.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

The Wes Anderson short is the only one of the nominated shorts I’ve seen. Will refrain from picking a Should Win in the other categories. Sorry to everyone else. I’m doing my best. Also, if I could pick one Anderson short from 2023 to win an Oscar, I’d go with The Swan.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

WILL WIN: Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

I don’t have any takes here but go see Dune: Part Two. What a movie. I think I floated in my seat during it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

WILL WIN: The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

I can’t believe this is at over 2,400 words now. I also can’t believe that someone out there made it all the way to this paragraph. Thank you for your service.