Umm, Do The Oscars Matter?
Yes. No. Kind of.
So, I’ve been having an existential crisis as of late.
If you’ve met me even once, you know that I love movies, and more specifically, I love the Oscars. But, the past few years have made it all very hard. I don’t want this to be a bitching about the Oscars post—there’s more than enough of that already. My problem is that no one hates the Oscars like the Oscars as evidenced by every single thing they’re doing leading up to this weekend’s Academy Awards.
Yes, it’s all pageantry and the awards don’t actually matter, but they’re also critical in terms of cementing legacies, giving up-and-coming filmmakers some extra leeway for future projects and providing a snapshot of what movies mattered from the year.
There’s been quite a bit of hubbub (hubbub is a fun word) lately over the Academy sidelining eight different awards and moving them out of primetime to emphasize more popular (translation: less Oscar-y) movies. Of the below-the-line categories that are being pushed aside, we have film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design and sound. Not only is this a bullshit idea as it tells critical industry professionals that they don’t matter as much as the stars, but these categories feature hits of their own from Dune to Cruella to Encanto to Don’t Look Up. The entire point of the Oscars is to award the people behind the best movies of the year and we can’t even do that. You can’t fit all of the winners into a three-hour-plus broadcast? That’s on you.
And instead of seeing craftsmen and movies being celebrated, we’re going to get a bunch of lame one-liners and random social do-goodery in its place…
You’d be better off scrolling through TikTok for five minutes than watching an hour of Amy Schumer making half-baked references if you’re looking for a laugh.
Stop making unforced errors. Let us see all of the awards, hire a host that likes movies and for god’s sake invite Rachel Zegler (star of West Side Story, social media prodigy, future Hollywood royalty) to your goddamn show.
The other thing about the Oscars—and this may be the real problem at the heart of it—is that it’s about playing the game more than it is being rewarded for good work. It’s looking like Jessica Chastain will be taking home the Best Actress trophy for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. It’s an insipid choice as it’s a hammy performance with little to no heart. Chastain has been MUCH better in the past and rewarding her for this is a make-up award more than anything else. Listening and reading to Oscar prognosticators, it seems that one of the main reasons for this potential win is that she’s been glad-handing with the best of them and the voters have enjoyed her speeches.
I guess I understand that it’s a popularity contest, but it’s a bummer when actual thought and care are thrown away in order to satiate the showbusiness beast.
I’m stuck between a rock and a hard place, because I truly love the idea of taking a moment to reward the best that movies have to offer, and yet I’m sick of the entire rigamarole of the whole thing. Yes, these are my opinions, but also Green Book objectively isn’t better than Roma and Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos doesn’t deserve to be nominated over a handful of actresses left on the chopping block.
I like CODA. CODA isn’t close to being the best movie of the last 12 months. And its recent surge is making me worried.
The thing that’s a real bummer is that these awards do matter. Parasite won Best Picture and the movie went gangbusters in theaters. Drive My Car has been nominated for four Oscars and the film is now getting a wider release through the HBO Max platform. Directors and stars that win get to make projects that they care about (for the most part) and use their newfound gravitas to give us cool things. Rewarding mediocrity will ultimately give us more mediocrity.
I’m just so tired.
And so, without further ado, here are my picks for the 94th Academy Awards.
Here it is. I’ll go into detail on some of these picks and just give you the *correct* answers for others.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
WINNER: Ariana Debose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
This seems to be the most locked up of any of the acting categories. A critical choice and a popular darling, it would be pretty shocking if Debose didn’t win here. The only chance of an upset would probably be Aunjanue Ellis, but the King Richard love has been pretty hit or miss depending on who’s giving out the awards.
Best Costume Design
WINNER: Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Oscar-winner Cruella…
Best Sound
Belfast
WINNER: Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up
WINNER: Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
I’m not sure how Jonny Greenwood’s Spencer score missed out, but it’s just one of those years, I guess.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
WINNER: The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
A strong bellwether for Best Picture, I keep going back and forth on The Power of the Dog vs. CODA. I’m still leaning slightly towards Jane Campion, but it’s very possible that I change my opinion by Sunday evening.
Best Original Screenplay
WINNER: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Don’t Look Up winning at the WGAs felt like as big a win for Belfast as it was for Adam McKay. This is a real bummer with Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World nominated, but that's the Oscars for you. If PTA or Trier make it onto the stage, I’ll take back everything I wrote about earlier.
Best Animated Short
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
WINNER: Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Best Live-Action short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
WINNER: The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
It’s funny because if the Oscars were held at the end of 2021, Kodi Smit-McPhee would’ve been the runaway winner. Now, it would be stunning if Kotsur doesn’t take the trophy home.
Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
WINNER: Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… BOOM!
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
WINNER: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
It has “The Eyes” in its title.
Best Animated Feature
WINNER: Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
We’ll never be rid of Lin Manuel-Miranda.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
WINNER: Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
Best Documentary Short
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
WINNER: When We Were Bullies
Best Original Song
Be Alive (King Richard)
WINNER: Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)
Down to Joy (Belfast)
No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
Somehow You Do (Four Good Days)
Best Cinematography
WINNER: Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best International Feature
WINNER: Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Best Production Design
WINNER: Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
WINNER: Dune
Free Guy
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Actress
WINNER: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
We’re going to look back on this one and say what the fuck were they thinking?
Best Actor
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick … BOOM!)
WINNER: Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Not sure if it’s just social media but there seems to be a real last-second push for Andrew Garfield. It could be an Olivia Colman over Glenn Close surprise, but Smith keeps on winning. If Garfield could’ve won the BAFTA, maybe… It’s Will Smith’s.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
WINNER: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Think this is pretty much done. Best Picture gets trickier.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
WINNER: The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Okay, so it seems like we’re down to The Power of the Dog and CODA. CODA’s been on a streak as of late winning at the PGAs, WGAs and the BAFTAs, but a more highbrow voting body in the Oscars is forcing me to lean towards TPOTD despite the opposition’s late surge. I think it’s essentially a coin toss. One really interesting note if CODA wins is that Apple will have won the Best Picture Oscar before Netflix. Every year, Netflix makes as strong a push as anyone and still can’t get over the hump. I’m not sure how Apple’s an “underdog” in anything, but it’s been a weird last few months years.