The Best Actress Race Is A Bloodbath

Can they take the Best Actor Oscar and save it for someone else?

We are slightly over 90 days until the Oscars, which means that we (this is the singular use of we) have seen most of the movies in the awards race.

There’s still the enigma that is Avatar: The Way of Water and Best Picture candidates like Empire of Light, Babylon, The Whale and Women Talking to be officially released, but through punditry, film festivals and early showings, we have a pretty good idea of where we stand when it comes to the Academy Awards.

And what we have right now are … a meh-to-fine Best Actor race and a delightfully jam-packed Best Actress race.

The Best Actor grouping looks like this: a body-changing performance from Brendan Fraser running in pole position, a lovely co-lead undertaking from Colin Farrell and the yearly biopic-whatever that is Austin Butler as Elvis Presley.

As you can probably tell, I’m lukewarm on Fraser and Butler’s awards stature and with Bill Nighy and Hugh Jackman of yet-to-be-released, not-beloved movies like Living and The Son respectively, it’s a real yawnfest when it comes to Best Actor. I would love to see Antonio Banderas, Paul Mescal, Park Hae-il or Daniel Kaluuya, but the only one that has a semblance of a chance is Mescal and, frankly, I just don’t see it for the Aftersun star.

We then have Tom Cruise (which would be fun but probably not super-worthy) and Will Smith (lol) in the mix, but, again, that entire rundown leaves me a little disappointed.

On the other hand, Best Actress features killer after killer, two of the better lead performances in recent memory and a bevy of stars.

Let’s go through the different groups of who’s in the race, because everyone loves a list. I used GoldDerby’s nomination predictions list to get a good feel of who’s actually in the running and everyone is from there, with one notable exception that I added in just for me.

It’s Not Going To Happen But I Would Be Thrilled

Karen Gillan, Dual

Okay, this is less of a group and more of a just Karen Gillan. More people should see Dual. This is a plea from yours truly. It’s a phenomenal dark comedy from Riley Stearns. Gillan nails the Yorgos Lanthimos-esque dialogue and dread. I love her in this, and you would too if you checked it out.

On GoldDerby So Technically In The Running But No Way

Anamaria Vartolomei, Happening

Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu

Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal

Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth

Frankie Corio, Aftersun

Florence Pugh, The Wonder

This has very little to do with their performances—I haven’t seen Pugh in The Wonder yet, but I’m sure she’s great since she’s always great—but for whatever reason, these movies haven’t taken off the way they needed to. Aftersun has become a Mescal vehicle for awards play, Taylor-Joy in The Menu is too much of a genre play, Johnson and Plaza have gotten indie love but little else and not enough people have seen Vartolomei's pitch-perfect performance in Happening. Sometimes you just don’t get the fanfare you need.

MAYBE If Everything Goes Right

Taylor Russell, Bones and All

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Tang Wei, Decision to Leave

Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Mia Goth, Pearl

All of these actresses could be part of the five nominated, but most likely will be on the outside looking in. If Women Talking really connects with the Academy, I could see Mara breaking through. Same with Russell in Bones and All, but that seems like a far cry with how visceral it is. Mia Goth and Tang Wei both have better chances than one might think but are probably a bit too niche as they come from horror-adjacent and Korean noir films respectively. Thompson has the best chance of this group, as she’s Hollywood Royalty and has won an Oscar before, but it feels like she would be more pronounced in the race by now if she was going to make it.

The “Ana de Armas in Blonde” Group

Ana de Armas, Blonde

She’ll be in this spot in the future, and I’m excited about that. Just not now. There’s no way she makes it this year despite decent odds. This movie is not only bad; it seems like people in the industry hate it. You can’t have Marilyn Monore chat with her aborted fetus and expect awards.

Can Sneak In But Don’t Expect An Oscar

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Two of the three here have won an Oscar and the other one is portraying Whitney Houston. Never bet against someone the Academy already knows and NEVER bet against someone playing a famous musician in a run-of-the-mill biopic.

Can Win, Probably Not

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Personally, I loved Robbie in Babylon and hope she gets in, but it was still a bit of a shock for me to see that GoldDerby has her in the Top Five right now. Babylon hasn’t been released yet, so we don’t know for sure how many will react to it. Williams is going for it in The Fabelmans and would’ve been a shoo-in at Supporting Actress but may not have enough screen-time to demand a lead victory. Deadwyler is more of a sure thing. She’s playing a real person and has already received positive reviews. Very good chance they make the Oscars, but still not in the highest levels of this here ranking.

Viola Davis

Viola Davis, The Woman King

The Oscars fucking adore Davis, and for good reason. She’s great in everything. She’s great in The Woman King. In my opinion, she’s the only one that can unseat the two leading the race depending on if The Woman King connects with older Academy members.

Jesus Christ, This Is Tough

Cate Blanchett, TÁR

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

In any other year, one of these performances would win everything. This year will most likely leave one of these actresses thrilled, with the other wondering what could have been. They’re both RUNNING and doing what they can to emerge victorious. Blanchett is an Oscars fixture (already winning twice) and Yeoh is on the campaign trail, recently named Time Magazine’s Icon of the Year. They’re both going to be nominated, and I would be amazed if one of them didn’t win. At the moment, I’m leaning toward Yeoh as she hasn’t won before and seems to have an insane amount of goodwill in Hollywood, but this take will most likely change a dozen times over the next three months. If I had a vote, I’d vote for Blanchett, but I don’t have a vote. Yet.

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Okay, that’s enough. I was planning to write a shorter post and accidentally wrote over 1,000 words about Best Actress. I guess I had a lot of thoughts.