So ... What's Gonna Happen?
It's Oscar Nominations prediction time.
A bunch of us were watching the college football championship game the other day and I somehow (as usual) found myself breaking down the Oscar Race. Will the two Wicked leads make the cut? Can Timothée Chalamet win the whole thing? Where does Conclave stand? As always, I realized two important things about myself:
1. I know way too much about the ins and outs of this somewhat arbitrary movie race. Probably more than a human should possibly learn or care about. And yet, I find the entire thing ridiculously fun. 2. I need a girlfriend.
Anyway, here’s how I see the eight major categories ending up. I worried and fretted about this more than usual (see #2 above), but the nominations will drop on Thursday and it’s my duty to get you these predictions that will expire in a matter of hours.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked
At this point, this is pretty locked in with the exception of the tenth slot, which seems to be between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. I personally would throw in Nickel Boys but for Emilia Pérez and/or Wicked. Either way, this is the most open race in a while with five movies—Emilia Pérez, Anora, The Brutalist, Wicked and Conclave—all having legitimate shots at Best Picture.
I know I keep on harping on this, but with the preferential ballot in which you have to rank, I can see Conclave winning the whole damn thing. It’s a pretty easy movie to at least admire and the backstabbing and manipulation have already started. There was a remarkably dumb backlash campaign against Anora’s ethics and some murky AI rumors about both The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez that were so prevalent that A24 had to come out to defend the former.
I’m relatively confident in these 10, which means maximum chaos is approaching.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
As has been the case recently, the Oscars always make sure to have one (1) woman in the race, which is both awesome for Coralie Fargeat (will be well-deserved if she gets in) and kind of a bummer for all of the other great female directors this year. In particular, Alice Rohrwacher for La Chimera and Ariane Louis-Seize for Humanist Vampire Seeking Consenting Suicidal Person. Neither of those ever had a chance, but let me shout them out one more time.
Anyway, it kind of feels like this is Corbet’s to lose, even though The Brutalist may have a tough time winning the biggest award of the night. Baker was the leader in the clubhouse for a while but has dropped along with Anora’s chances. If Audiard wins, everything will be very, very dumb. So, that’s probably how it’ll go. Either way, these five are pretty locked in at this point. It’d be nice to see RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) or Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) sneak in, but I just don’t see it. The other dark horse is James Mangold for A Complete Unknown which keeps building steam. The man was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for a comic book movie (Logan) so we know the voters love him.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
This race is ultimately going to come down to Adrien Brody or Timothée Chalamet, and those two (along with Colman Domingo and Ralph Fiennes) have been pretty set in this category for a while. The one weak spot is Daniel Craig for Queer. He’s beloved in the community and has been doing this for a while without a single Oscar nom, but Queer never got the push it really needed and kind of fell behind (culturally, at least) Luca Guadagnino’s other movie, Challengers. I kind of see Sebastian Stan taking it for The Apprentice, a movie about Donald Trump. The man’s in the news again because the world is a dumb place and it feels like voters might want to push in a well-acted character study about this extremely flawed and villainous man. Stan has been running an impressive campaign considering he has both The Apprentice and A Different Man in contention and I think he gets in there by the skin of his teeth.
Also, I think Chalamet’s winning the Oscar, especially after the upcoming SNL episode in which he’ll host and perform as the musical guest. Just perfect timing and an incredible capper to one of the best promo runs in recent memory.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Like the Best Actor race, it looks like there are four guarantees: Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofía Gascón, Mikey Madison and Demi Moore. And Demi Moore seems to be the favorite after her balls-to-the-wall performance in The Substance and her tremendous Golden Globes speech. I still think Madison has a chance but we’ll get to that in a month or so.
For now, the final spot is a near toss-up between Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Fernanda Torres. MAYBE Nicole Kidman, Pamela Anderson or Angelina Jolie can find a way in there, but I’m dubious. I’m going with Jean-Baptiste because she keeps on winning with critics and has been here before despite her lesser-known status.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
It seems kind of ridiculous that Clarence Maclin won’t get in for his star turn in Sing Sing, but the Jeremy Strong love is real and the last-second push for The Apprentice seems to be coming. The rest are (I feel like I keep on saying this) pretty locked in with Kieran Culkin for some reason apparently waltzing to an Oscar. There’s a non-zero chance Denzel Washington gets in here too for chewing every ounce of scenery in Gladiator II, and still, I’m going with the five above.
I don’t have that much more to say here. I hope Yura Borisov or Guy Pearce will have a chance, but fun wins like that don’t usually happen at the Academy Awards.
Best Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
I have to be honest with you. I have no clue where this Jamie Lee Curtis leap for a lesser-seen, not-beloved movie is coming from, but it’s all I’m reading and hearing about when it comes to this race. I guess she’s great at playing the game of it all, as evidenced by her wonky Oscar win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. She’s fine in that movie, but she’s not even the best supporting actress performance!
This feels a bit like the Andrea Riseborough From Leslie nomination which had a lot of behind-the-scenes Hollywood politics and manipulation, so we’ll find out soon enough if it worked again for JLC.
Outside of her, Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldaña are the only true locks—it feels like it’s Saldaña’s to lose—and Felicity Jones and Isabella Rossellini are both riding their respective movies’ wave.
Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
I feel like I’m repeating myself but once again, there are four real contenders and one question mark with Hard Truths potentially getting pushed out by September 5 (which would be a very questionable decision), Challengers or All We Imagine as Light. If it’s the five above, that seems like a pretty solid lineup. Could be much worse…
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Conclave has been in the driver’s seat here for a while and all five of these seem to be where the Academy is going. Kinda surprised (pleasantly) that Wicked isn’t expected to be here, but again, we’ll see. I do wish Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Nosferatu got more of a look here, but they seem a bit too outside of the Oscars’ wheelhouse. Anyway, Nickel Boys should win even though it definitely has no chance. Trying to reverse-jinx it into reality.