Predicting The 2026 Oscars. Why Not?
I don't know why I'm doing this either.
I’ve done a lot of dumb things for this newsletter, but this might be right at the top. Or at the bottom. Depending on how you classify dumb things.
Either way, here’s what I’m predicting for the eight major categories in 2026. Yes, that’s a real year. And the way things are going, we probably won’t make it to then. Nevertheless, Greg persisted. So here’s how I’m thinking things will go in just under a year from now. Also, I know Anora won four of the eight top categories this season, but I’m going to try to spread the love this go-around. It’s more fun and allows me to be even more wrong.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
This is definitely a wish more than anything else, but a blockbuster Paul Thomas Anderson movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Regina Hall, Sean Penn, Alana Haim, Teyana Taylor, Wood Harris and Benicio del Toro releasing in IMAX loosely based on a Thomas Pynchon novel is exactly what the movies need. One Battle After Another looks insane in the best of ways, and after a small drama winning Best Picture, why not go the exact opposite direction and finally reward PTA for being one of the best filmmakers of his generation. A younger and more international Academy growing up on Anderson’s films might be exactly what we need to finally push his work over the finish line.
One Battle After Another Release Date: August 8, 2025 - Theaters
Best Director: Lynne Ramsay
Maybe not as big a name as some of the others releasing movies this year—PTA, Edward Berger, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, Yorgos Lanthimos, etc.—Lynne Ramsay has become an independent film darling and is working on her most star-studded film yet, Die, My Love starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson. Lawrence will lead the cast playing a new mother in the French countryside who develops postpartum depression and enters psychosis. That’s quite a logline, but it seems like this movie will be funnier than one would expect. If it’s able to walk that line, why not? Let’s see a Ramsay win.
Die, My Love Release Date: TBA - Theaters
Best Actor: Jeremy Allen White
I can see it. We know Jeremy Allen White is beloved by his peers, as evidenced by his wins for The Bear, and he’ll be piggybacking off of Timothée Chalamet’s oh-so-close Oscar run for playing Bob Dylan. The Oscars can’t get enough of a biopic of an artist and people just fucking love Bruce Springsteen. If Jeremy is able to sing and channel the energy of Bruce in Deliver Me From Nowhere, he’ll for sure be nominated. So, a win is very very possible.
Deliver Me From Nowhere Release Date: Late Fall/Early Winter - Theaters
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley
I once saw Jessie Buckley sing live after a showing of Wild Rose, and that was one of the more talented things I’ve ever had a chance to witness. Although I never finished the book it’s based on (sorry!), Hamnet is a major Oscar play from Chloe Zhao featuring Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley in a historical period drama centered on William Shakespeare and his wife Agnes. Buckeley was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Lost Daughter and this feels like the jump that we’ve all been waiting for.
Hamnet Release Date: TBA - Theaters
Best Supporting Actor: Adam Sandler
The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) has quietly become one of my favorite Noah Baumbach movies and Adam Sandler’s emotional, constantly-limping performance may be the main reason why. Baumbach seems to love writing for Sandler and I can see a supporting performance from the Sandman in the upcoming Jay Kelly compared to George Clooney’s lead taking awards season by storm. Sandler popped in for the opening monologue at the 2025 Oscars and everyone was excited to see him. Sometimes it’s the campaign that gets you there, and does anyone not like Adam Sandler?
Jay Kelly Release Date: October 2025 - Netflix
Best Supporting Actress: Nia Long
I don’t know if you know this, but there’s a Michael Jackson biopic called Michael coming out later this year. I’m sure the discourse will be great. Jaafar Jackson will be playing the titular character and Colman Domingo and Nia Long will be playing his parents, Joe and Katherine Jackson respectively.
Domingo will probably be nominated once again, but with no knowledge about this movie, I’m gonna predict a Nia Long win as the matriarch of the family. I can see an emotional speech or two getting the job done for her. And then, hopefully, we’ll never think of this movie ever again.
Michael Release Date: October 3, 2025 - Theaters
Best Original Screenplay: Sentimental Value
The following is the understatement of the century: I enjoyed The Worst Person in the World. And it seems like the Oscars did do. Despite no one predicting it, the Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier snuck into the Best Original Screenplay category, and now we’re all waiting for what the duo does next. Renate Reinsve is set to star (again) in Sentimental Value, and she’ll be joined by a loaded cast from Stellan Skarsgård to Elle Fanning to Cory Michael Smith. This feels like the next step after the nomination. I can’t wait for this movie.
Sentimental Value Release Date: September 2025 - Theaters
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Ballad of a Small Player
We already know that the Academy loves Edward Berger (off of a plethora of noms for Conclave and All Quiet on the Western Front), so this feels right. This one is a Macau-based, psychological thriller, which …. yes. Plus, it stars Colin Farrell and Tilda Swinton with Netflix’s budget behind the film. The German director and screenwriter has become a mainstay at these awards shows, despite not winning his own yet. I think it’s time.
Sentimental Value Release Date: TBA - Netflix
Well, that was a ridiculous thing to do. Thanks for following along.