Oscars 2023: Let's Do This

I have some thoughts.

I love the Oscars.

It’s that simple.

The race, the dumb takes, the surprises, the terrible outfits, the memes that spread like wildfire. We’ve made it once again.

Everything Everywhere All at Once is the prohibitive favorite and Austin Butler may win an award for doing an accent for too long and someone new will have to take Will Smith’s spot as The Slapper. It’s all happening and so I’ve decided to try something bold: Let’s predict every goddamn category. Some years I do pretty well—like the 2014 Oscars where I nailed every category—but most years, I look back in shame and horror knowing I screwed up.

Let’s start with the Short Films, even though (if we’re being honest), I haven’t watched a single one. I’ll start doing what should win along with what will win for the main film categories, but I can’t honestly say that I know what should win for these first few.

Best Live-Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye” — Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” — Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” — Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” — Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” — Cyrus Neshvad

Le Pupille will win. Why? Because it’s being distributed by Disney+ and Hulu. That’s all I’ve got. Feels like they have the backing, and it’s got a foreign title, so you know it’s fancy.

Best Documentary Short

“The Elephant Whisperers” — Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” — Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” — Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” — Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

I’m going with The Elephant Whisperers here because it’s about an orphaned baby elephant and that should be enough to lock up an award.

Best Animated Short

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” — Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” — Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” — João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks” — Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” — Lachlan Pendragon

Do I think My Year of Dicks will win because of its name? Yes, yes I do. It’s quirky enough to get more voters to watch it.

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany
Argentina, 1985 — Argentina
Close — Belgium
EO — Poland
The Quiet Girl — Ireland

Should Win: Umm, All Quiet on the Western Front, I guess

I still think that Decision to Leave is the best international release up for this year’s awards season and that it deserved a bigger stage than what it ended up on, but it didn’t get nominated somehow, so I guess we’ll go with the war epic that’s pretty well done and totally fine and also kind of hollow.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

I don’t think it’ll happen, but there’s an outside chance this wins Best Picture. It’s nominated everywhere and the Academy loves a war movie. It’s gonna win here.

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes — Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed — Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
Fire of Love — Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
A House Made of Splinters — Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
Navalny — Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Should Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

I actually really like the three docs in the driver’s seat in this category between the above, Navalny and Fire of Love. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is probably the most “artistic” of the three and genre-breaking, which always gets my attention. It’s a beautiful in-depth look into Nan Goldin’s war with the Sackler family and deserves all of the plaudits it receives. Director Laura Poitras has won this award before, so it’s very possible that she runs it back.

Will Win: Navalny

I’m totally fine with Navalny winning here. It’s a little more paint-by-numbers than All the Beauty, but it’s a tremendous behind-the-scenes look at a former presidential candidate who survived a Russian assassination attempt and it features one of the more shocking scenes I’ve ever seen in a documentary. Really good stuff.

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On — Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish — Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast — Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red — Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

This is quietly a barnburner of a category. I’ve seen four of the five movies nominated here and enjoyed to loved all four. Marcel is one of my favorites from 2022—I’ve written about this once or 20 times—and I would be thrilled with an upset here, but I think it’s pretty sewn up for …

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

The Academy Awards fucking love Guillermo del Toro, and, honestly, they should. He always makes interesting stuff and is a critical voice for cinema (and now animation). This version of Pinocchio is perhaps the most visually striking. Basically, every sequence could be shown in a museum. I’m hoping for an upset here, but I just don’t see it when GDT is involved. And I won’t be upset about another win for del Toro.

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front — Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
Avatar: The Way of Water — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
The Batman — Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick — Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Should Win: The Batman

I could’ve sworn that I saw this movie a half-decade ago, but I guess it was only in 2022. Anyway, this iteration of Batman looks incredible and has that noir-horror feel that I personally adore. Really cool shit.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

This movie was invented to win this category. It’s an entire world. I’m not totally sure why this isn’t an animated movie at this point, since it’s more animation than most animated movies, but it is what it is. I don’t personally love the Avatar movies, but I can’t deny that they invented a world all to itself, so that’s nice.

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front — Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
Avatar: The Way of Water — Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
The Batman — Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
Elvis — David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

pew pew pew zoom shoo zoom zoom pow pow bang pop

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

I think I’ve said all that I need to say.

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Should Win: New Body Rhumba from White Noise

I know this didn’t make it to the final five, but this is my newsletter and this LCD Soundsystem song is a banger, and part of one of the best sequences of the year. So good. You’re missing out if you haven’t heard it.

Will Win: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Very happy that RRR snuck into the Oscars race somewhere and this is a cool place for it to win. It’s been taking home all of the big wins leading up to this spot. I do think there’s a chance for an upset here with big names like Rihanna and Lady Gaga nominated, also because of the EEAAO love, but I’m still taking “Naatu Naatu” here.

Best Score

All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann
Babylon — Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux
The Fabelmans — John Williams

Should Win: BABYLON

Hit it!

Will Win: Babylon

What a goddamn movie. I’ll keep saying it for the rest of my life. Go Justin Hurwitz! Win your award. If this loses, we riot at dawn.

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front — Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Avatar: The Way of Water — Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Babylon — Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Elvis — Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
The Fabelmans — Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

Should Win: Babylon

There are some people out there (idiots) that don’t like Babylon, but I don’t think they can deny its production value. It looks like it was very expensive, because … it was. Every movie should be a vanity project from a ballsy director.

Will Win: Babylon

It’s in the lead when it comes to odds. However, I can see an upset here to any of the other options. Elvis, Avatar: The Way of Water, All Quiet and The Fabelmans all have a chance to steal this one. Leaning Babylon since its production design is right there in front of you from the opening sequence, but, honestly, I don’t really know where this one goes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front — Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
The Batman — Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Elvis — Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
The Whale — Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

This category, over the last few years, has become the Best Job Making Someone Famous Look Not Like Themselves grouping. For all of the new Black Panther’s faults, they have the budget and team to make everything look damn good. It’s not a critical category for yours truly, but I would probably lean towards this movie here.

Will Win: Elvis

I was really close to putting The Whale here, because the Oscars love to reward when a movie makes an actor look really fat, but I think there’s an Elvis wave of sorts that’ll give a push to its below-the-line noms.

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers
Tár — Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton

Should Win: TÁR

Although less athletic than some of the other options, the exactness of TÁR deserves to be celebrated on the biggest possible stage. For a nearly three-hour movie, TÁR doesn’t drag despite its heavy subject matter and features some hilarious and bleak quick-cuts.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

This category tends to lean towards war epics or music-centric films, but the rallying cry around EEAAO gives me the feeling that it’s going to win in some unheralded categories where it might not usually. The jumping between multiverses and nonstop chaos requires a good deal of editing, and this has enough action to satisfy those who usually prefer battle sequences in the editing vote.

Best Costume Design

Babylon — Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter
Elvis — Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan

Should Win: Babylon

I won’t apologize for loving Babylon.

Will Win: Elvis

This one’s a two-horse race between Elvis and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I could easily see Ruth Carter winning after she took home the Oscar for the first of the BP films, but once again, I see the Elvis love taking this one home. The costumes are nice.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji
Elvis — Mandy Walker
Empire of Light — Roger Deakins
Tár — Florian Hoffmeister

Should Win: TÁR

This movie looks unreal. I can definitely see a lot of the Academy voters watching this one at home and the incredible cinematography not transferring enough to a smaller screen. It’s shot like a horror movie, despite its subject matter, and is gorgeous, no matter what’s in the frame. And yet, this one’s going to a war movie.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

You think of cinematography, and you most likely imagine a battle going on. That’s just how many people (and voters) think. I can easily see this being a consolation prize for a movie that many people love, and is firmly in the Best Picture race. It makes sense, and the only option I can see sneaking in is Elvis.

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár — Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlund

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Martin McDonagh has been nominated in the Original Screenplay category before—for In Bruges and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri—but has never won. His only Oscar win was in Best Live Action Short Film. I think this is as tight and witty as any script he’s written before, and it would only be right to award this movie since it’s very likely will be blanked everywhere else. It’s one of two options, but I see it falling just short, despite the early odds in its favor.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Sometimes a movie just has the juice and EEAAO is that movie. I’d slightly prefer McDonagh or Todd Field for TÁR, but I’m totally fine with the Daniels winning here. It’s an inventive movie with a family core that deserves all of the love its getting. I see a big night for this duo.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson
Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Should Win: Women Talking

I don’t think this movie got its due from Oscar voters or the general public. It constantly being shifted around on the release calendar certainly didn’t help. And yet, I would be surprised if Women Talking got upset here. It’s a film that relies on its script more than any of the other movies in this category and took a popular book and turned it into a beautiful movie. Rooting for Sarah Polley here.

Will Win: Women Talking

The only other movie that I can see winning here is All Quiet if it has a big night, but Polley seems to have won enough of the earlier awards to get the big one. It’s still very funny to me that Top Gun: Maverick is here, but not in Cinematography. What the hell happened there?

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Stephanie Hsu

It’s between Kerry Condon and Stephanie Hsu for me, but I’m leaning toward the breakout EEAAO star, who’s simultaneously the best part and most undersung cast member. Hsu has to balance so many characters between the villainous Jobu Tupaki to the over-all-of-it Joy Wang. She’s able to fight, wear ridiculous costumes and spar with Michelle Yeoh, all with aplomb. I’ve enjoyed the Jamie Lee Curtis Renaissance, but Hsu should be the person from this film in the mix.

Will Win: I really don’t know, but I’m leaning Angela Bassett

Bassett, Curtis and Condon are all right there when it comes to winning, but I’m leaning toward Bassett who has the showiest performance in a movie that may have trouble winning other awards. Curtis won at the SAG Awards, but I see a small amount of voter fatigue and a chance to reward Bassett will win out. Of these three, I’m cheering for Condon, but she doesn’t have the name recognition that the other two have. That’s just part of it sometimes.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Brian Tyree Henry

This is Quan’s award. It’s the most locked-up of the acting races, and I would be legitimately shocked if he doesn’t take it home, so I want to give a shoutout to Brian Tyree Henry who’s the best part of a lesser-seen movie in Causeway. I’m hit-or-miss when it comes to Jennifer Lawrence but I thought her performance in this one, and the film as a whole, deserved more. Brian Tyree Henry is a big reason why. From Atlanta to Widows to If Beale Street Could Talk, Henry is quietly (and not so quietly) becoming one the best actors we have. Big fan of the work he does here.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

This is one of those Best Supporting wins that would feel right. Kind of like J.K. Simmons, Mahershala Ali or Daniel Kaluuya. Sometimes, you just have it. And Quan does, in the right movie at the right time. He’s won so many awards over this film’s run and still people seem to be rooting for him. I think it’s his.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Blanchett gave the best performance of the year (and the last few years). Her full deep dive into Lydia Tár is so mesmerizing that she has me slightly rooting against Yeoh. Until recently, I thought this was an obvious Best Actress for Blanchett, but the tides have changed. Yeoh is running to win and had a hell of a night at the SAGs. Also, there seems to be a wave of people voting for Yeoh as she’s never won before. I won’t be upset with a Yeoh victory, but it’ll be funny looking back at Blanchett’s loss here and thinking how the hell did that happen?

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh

In most other years, this would be a landslide victory, and yet when it comes down to Yeoh and Blanchett, only one will win. It feels unfair. The more I think about it, the more it feels like Yeoh’s year, as a reward for EEAAO but also a reward for her lifetime in film and the chance to make some history. Blanchett’s won before and will likely win again. Hope Yeoh gets another role as meaty and showy as this one again. She should.

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living

Should Win: Colin Farrell

I’m already mad about this category. I know Farrell isn’t going to win, but I’m holding out hope. He’s unreal in The Banshees of Inisherin, and to be honest, he’s been unreal in so many movies over the last decade. The best actor out there, Farrell most likely isn’t going to have an Oscar for yet another year, but he’ll have one soon enough. He better. Farrell’s innate likability is almost used against him in this role as you see him lose himself as hardships grow and grow. He’s simultaneously funny and heartbreaking. A legend.

Will Win: Somehow Austin Butler

I’m so sick of biopics. I’m sick of Butler’s stupid put-on accent and these mediocre performances winning year-in and year-out and cradle-to-grave bland stories becoming the norm for awards. It happened with Rami Malek, and it’s most likely going to happen again for Butler. He’s fine or whatever in this movie, but who cares? I don’t get it. I don’t love Fraser in The Whale either, but that’s more about the movie as a whole than anything else. Along with Farrell, we should give some love to Mescal. What a showing in Aftersun.

Best Director

The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

Should Win: Todd Field

I mean, if I could pick anyone to win, it would probably be Jordan Peele or Damien Chazelle, but Todd Field would fill out that triumvirate. Field’s directing in TÁR may not be flashy, but he’s able to able to follow the story of a less-cinematic medium in often beautiful and yet terrifying ways. This movie’s just so good. Nice work, Field.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

I was really close to writing in Steven Spielberg here, but that may be my own preconceived biases about awards bodies always congratulating a big-time director on his or her (but almost always his) later works. The Daniels keep winning when it comes to directing, and it would be a pretty big about-face if they didn’t sweep.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front — Malte Grunert, Producer
Avatar: The Way of Water — James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Banshees of Inisherin — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
Elvis — Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
The Fabelmans — Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
Tár — Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
Top Gun: Maverick — Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Triangle of Sadness — Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
Women Talking — Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

Should Win: TÁR

Okay, I think I’ve written enough about TÁR. It’s unbelievable and should win of this collection. It won’t, but that’s okay. Most of the best movies don’t win Best Picture. Parasite is more of an outlier than a norm. To be honest, though, this is a pretty solid choice of ten in the Best Picture lineup. I would probably have four of them in my own top ten of 2022, and that’s rare. Even the movies I don’t love like Elvis or Avatar are at least thought through and have lofty goals. I’ll take it.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Okay, we did it. I can’t believe that this is gonna win Best Picture, but it seems like it’s got it in the bag at this point. If there’s a big upset, maybe All Quiet on the Western Front. I’m not totally sure. I know this movie has been dissected ad nauseam, but I still don’t think we’ve comprehended how strange of a Best Picture winner it could be. Bonkers stuff.