My Favorite Awards Season Conspiracy Theory
Why you should change your name if you're getting into acting...
The Golden Globes are this weekend and Oscar voting begins on January 12th, so we’re firmly in the best season of the year: Awards Season.
There’s a lot that can happen, from One Battle After Another’s nonstop critical dominance to Timothée Chalamet continuing to shout out Kylie Jenner from the stage (which the Internet has been very cool and chill about) to Aunt Gladys from Weapons potentially having as many Academy Awards as Stanley Kubrick. And yet, one of my favorite running subplots and/or conspiracy theories centers around how ridiculous the entire thing is.
To put it simply, if you’re trying to sneak into one of the last few spots in a given category, you have a much better chance of being nominated if your last name is early in the alphabet. And, this isn’t just a random thought; metrics are showing that voters are too bored to scroll down when it comes to picking their favorite performances.
The top three or four in each category are pretty much cemented at this point, but if you’re looking for a surprise (especially in an acting category), might I suggest taking a gander at the alphabet? For example, Odessa A’Zion, Jacob Elordi and Joel Edgerton all have solid opportunities to sneak into various awards shows. And it has very little to do with their acting.
Last year, an insane and dedicated Redditor broke down the “alphabet bias,” and it’s pretty convincing, especially when looking at last year’s Screen Actors Guild nominations:
Of the 49 surprises total, 32 had a placement within the first 4 letters of the alphabet (roughly 65%). If you think that sounds bad, on just the film side, of the 17 surprises, 15 were in the first 4 letters (about 88%). The two exceptions are Adam Sandler in Hustle and Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice.
Furthermore, of the 48 snubs, only 3 were in the first 4 letters of the alphabet. These 3 were Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon, Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick, and Sam Claflin in Daisy Jones and the 6. None of these 3 got nominated at their respective major awards (Oscars/Emmys).
Of the 8 people that made Oscars and not SAG, none of them had a placement within the first 4 letters.
When a surprise occurs later in the alphabet, that’s a real showing of support, since it might take a scroll (or even two!) to find that specific individual.
If we were to take a look at Best Supporting Actress, at this point, it’s pretty safe to say that Amy Madigan for Weapons, Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value are all pretty securely in. It’s those last one or two noms where things might come down to a letter or two. A betting man would lean towards Odessa A’Zion, Elle Fanning, Ariana Grande or Glenn Close over Wunmi Mosaku, Gwyneth Paltrow or Emily Watson. Of course, starpower is the ultimate deciding factor, but if you’re on the line, might we suggest changing your name to something beginning with A? Odessa A’Zion, we salute you.
To be fair, it’s not just arbitrary movie awards, as there’s an entire study in the National Library of Medicine centered on “detecting name bias in alphabetically ordered ballot papers.”
The abstract states that, “Results show that position bias was significant enough to influence rank order of candidates, and in the case of many marginal electoral wards, to influence who was elected to government. Position bias was observed most strongly for Liberal Democrat candidates, but present for all major political parties.”
What this all comes down to is the fact that human beings are very stupid. This doesn’t take away much from the awards shows—the entire thing is silly (but fun) pomp and circumstance—but it really just goes to show you that everything is so dumb.
Perhaps Jen Barkley from Parks and Recreation puts it best:
Leslie Knope: I think you’re underestimating the voters.
Jennifer Barkley: Hahahhahahahahah! I don’t think that’s possible!
One Final Note: The above was written BEFORE the Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild) nominations. Some of the most surprising noms that made it: A’Zion, Elordi, Miles Canton from Sinners and Kate Hudson from Song Sung Blue. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…